Greenhouse emissions could increase risks of megadroughts in parts of US, says NASA

Rising greenhouse gas emission could increase the risk of severe droughts in US Southwest and Central Plains, a Nasa study found.

Drought conditions in these regions during the last half of this century is likely to be worse and last longer than in the last 1,000 years, according to a study.

Published in the journal ‘Science Advances’, the study is based on computer projections from multiple climate models, one of which had been funded by the US agency.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate scientist Ben Cook was cited as saying that, at present, the likelihood of megadrought extending over three decades is 12%.

The likelihood of severe drought can go up to over 60%, if greenhouse gas emissions stopped in the mid-21st century.

According to Cook, if the emissions continue at present rate throughout 21st century, the likelihood of a ten-year long megadrought in the region can be 80% between 2050 and 2099.

The research study is a first to project future drought probabilities based on records from the last 1,000 years.

The Southwestern parts of the country is likely to experience climate change, resulting in reduced rainfall and raised temperatures which will lead to increased evaporation of groundwater, the study says.

Drought in the Central Plains is also expected to see similar climate change over similar reasons.

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Image: Brown is drier and blue is wetter than the 20th c. average. Image Credit: NASA/GSFC